Duke & Kentucky By The Numbers

By Paul Novielli, November 12, 2024

It’s finally time. All offseason, the Champions Classic matchup between Duke and Kentucky has been circled on the calendar by both fanbases. Tonight in “Catlanta,” we finally get to see what this new-look Mark Pope team is made of. So let’s take a look at this blue-blooded matchup by the numbers.

All Time
Kentucky enters the game leading the all-time series with Duke, 12-11. However, recent history has not been kind to the Cats. Since 1990, Kentucky is just 2-6 against the Blue Devils, having lost two straight and 5 of the last 6. Not what you want to see as a Kentucky fan against one of the most disliked rivals and a fellow blue blood. The last time these two teams faced off, it was #9 Duke defeating #10 Kentucky 79-71 in Madison Square Garden. Big O was the leading scorer for Kentucky that night with 17 points. The last time Kentucky defeated Duke was in 2015. Tyler Ulis led the Cats to victory in Chicago with a game-high 18 points.

The Numbers
Everything about this game suggests it’s as even as you can get. Kentucky is averaging 101.5 points per game, Duke 98. Kentucky is shooting 53.5% from the floor and 40% from three, while Duke is shooting 52.2% from the field and 41.8% from three. Kentucky has seven players averaging double figures in scoring, while Duke has 5. Steals are 10 to 9 in favor of the Cats, and UK has a slight rebounding edge, 49 to 45. You may be saying, “We are only two games into the season,” and you would be 100% correct. It’s hard to gauge a game with two teams with different rosters two games into the season. But we are Kentucky fans, this is what we do 🙂

Keys To The Game
With both teams statistically even (yes, just through two games), what is it going to take for one team to prevail tonight? Besides the obvious “score more points”:

1. Defense – Both teams enter the game with high-powered offenses. Neither team has been tested on the defensive side of the court like they will tonight. It may not be totally fair to expect a clean game from either team defensively. So, in my opinion, it will come down to timely defensive stops. Can either team keep an 8-point run from becoming a 15-point run? In the last two minutes, which team will have a player step up in the big moment on the defensive side of the ball? Kentucky has three very good defensive players in Otega, Butler, and Amari who have played a lot of basketball, and Kentucky needs them in big moments tonight.
2. Rebounding – Kentucky put an emphasis on rebounding going into the game with Bucknell, and boy, oh boy, did they respond! Kentucky had 57 rebounds and 22 offensive rebounds. Keeping Duke from second-chance points tonight will be very big in a game that looks like it will be dominated by offense. The team with extra possessions could be the team that wins the game. Limiting second-chance points is a must. Amari has been dominant on the glass, averaging 13 boards per game. Kentucky needs that sort of performance and a swarming rebounding effort tonight.
3. Amari Williams – Amari brings a completely different dynamic to the team on both ends of the court. At seven feet tall, the ability he has to push the ball up the court is incredible. It stretches the defense and allows Kentucky’s guards to roam freely off the ball and get into high-scoring percentage shot-making positions. His game really reminds me of Bam in Miami. While we haven’t seen his shot-making ability from behind the arc yet, he has the potential to make shots from distance, and tonight could be the night we see that skill manifest itself. Watching him play through two games, it’s clear his presence is huge for Kentucky, and the team just looks different when he is on the court. Not only his ability to push the ball, but his passing and vision are also some of the best we have seen in any big man in some time at Kentucky.

Who’s Going To Win?
This is a tough game to predict. I have gone back and forth since the beginning of the season on this one. It’s often hard to call a game when your head and your heart are at odds with each other. So I have waited until today to get a gut feeling on where this game may go. I really like Kentucky in this matchup. I believe Kentucky has more paths to victory and a deeper offensive team. Early in the season, when defense may not be at 100% for any team, having 8 guys who could go for 25+ is a huge advantage. So bookmark this if you want, but I have the Cats taking this one tonight 91-86. I hope I’m right—Go Cats!