What to Watch For in Calipari’s Return

Kentucky enters tonight’s game 15-5 overall with a 4-3 record against conference opponents thus far. We know the Cats can beat any team on any night, but they have struggled this season with unranked opponents. They are just 1-4 against unranked power conference opponents on the season, but all four of those losses came away from home. The pregame atmosphere and the reaction from Big Blue Nation have been talked about so much I think people have forgotten there is a basketball game too, but here is what to expect from the Arkansas roster once the tipoff happens and the drama is over.

Former Cats Play Big Roles

Adou Thiero is everything we hoped he would turn into during his time in Lexington. Thiero averages 16.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.8 steals on 57.2% shooting from the field as he bullies people with his now 6’8, 220-pound body. He can guard every player on the court while presenting a mismatch for a Kentucky team with questions marks surrounding starting power forward Andrew Carr. Ansley Almonor has been an excellent shooter over the last couple of weeks, but there is a drop off defensively when he comes in the game. Kentucky will have to wall up and play Thiero the way they guarded the Tennessee wings by forcing him to shoot outside the paint.

DJ Wagner and Zvonimir Ivisic also play big roles for Calipari’s first team in Fayetteville. Wagner averages 10.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while seeing his usage rise in recent games due to the injury of Boogie Fland. Mark Pope called Big Z a top ten rim protector in the country, but the Croatian big man also adds 7.4 points and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 40.6% from three. Karter Knox and Billy Richmond add 6.7 and 4.5 points each but have both had their struggles transitioning to the college game. Boogie Fland ended up one of the best freshmen in the conference, but the Razorback’s leading assist man has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a hand injury.

It’s Not All Kentucky

These two programs matched up on the recruiting trail a couple times during the transfer portal, but the prize of the group was FAU’s Johnell Davis. Health has been the biggest problem for Davis after sustaining a wrist injury over the offseason. He has only missed two complete games, but it is clear the wrist bothers him and has affected his shot. Davis is coming off his highest scoring night of the year after scoring 18 on Oklahoma last weekend and keeping Davis from finding his rhythm will be key to limiting the Arkansas offense. Trevon Brazile stayed in Fayetteville through the coaching change and Jonas Aidoo left Tennessee to join Cal. Both of these players are long, athletic, and physical defenders with limitations on the offensive end.

Same Ole Cal?

We all have a good idea of the offense Calipari is running down in Arkansas. John Welch isn’t walking out of the tunnel with him and the offense has suffered since his departure from Cal’s staff. The Razorbacks are #110 in offensive efficiency and #98 in points per game at 76.2 points per game. Conference play has not been nice to the Arkansas offense as only LSU has allowed the Hogs to get over 66 points in seven conference games. Calipari always emphasized getting to the rim, but the roster limitations have made it even more of a priority. 53.8% of their points come from inside the arc (#57) and just 28.6% come from deep (#255). Kentucky should find success if they keep Wagner and Davis out of the paint and make Arkansas beat them from three.

Defense is where Arkansas makes their mark more consistently. The Hogs are tied for #36 in defensive efficiency as the coaching staff has slowed things down and gotten back to filling driving lanes with length and rim protection. The Razorbacks are #6 in block rate as they get a piece of 9.8% of opponent shots, second only to Auburn in the SEC. The length and athleticism also keep opposing offenses from being able to move the ball effectively as they are #52 in opponent assists per possession. It’s nothing special, but the Arkansas defense is good enough to keep them in games when the offense shows any type of competency.

We have been talking about February 1st since Calipari left us for Arkansas and the day is finally here. Kentucky is an 11-point favorite over their former coach tonight and the city of Lexington is ready for a spectacle tonight at 9PM on ESPN.

Photo Credits to the Lexington Herald