We are just 18 short days away from the beginning of the college football season, and the excitement is back around UK football. Will Stein has brought a swagger and confidence not seen in Lexington in a long time. Fans camped out for tailgate spots, something that wasn’t really even seen at the height of the Stoops 10-win seasons. How is this newfound excitement greeted? With one of the hardest schedules in college football.
Kentucky plays seven, and that wasn’t a typo, seven AP preseason Top 25 teams. That should be a reason to worry, right? Not so fast.
Preseason rankings have proven less reliable in the NIL era. Indiana, the defending national champions, was preseason No. 20 and finished 16-0. Likewise, No. 2 Penn State, No. 4 Clemson, No. 9 LSU, No. 11 Arizona State, No. 12 Illinois, No. 13 South Carolina, No. 15 Florida, No. 16 SMU, No. 17 Kansas State, No. 22 Iowa State, No. 24 Tennessee and No. 25 Boise State all finished the season unranked.
That should give the Cats some optimism going into the new season. While the preseason rankings show a formidable road, there are signs that not all the teams ranked today will still be ranked, or ranked as high, when Kentucky plays them.
In the article below, I will lay out three categories: Win, Toss-Up and Probable Loss. Some of this, I’ll admit, is my head and heart conflicting, and some of it is simply how the season falls. Alabama in the second game and Florida in mid-November are good examples.
So, without further ado, let’s dive right in.
Kentucky vs Youngstown State
WIN
This one should be an easier one to predict. UK comes in as a three-touchdown favorite and has a clear advantage over its FCS opponent. Look for UK and Will Stein to come out and make a statement in the opening game of the season in front of what should be a sold-out Kroger Field. One of the more interesting things to come out of this game will be everything surrounding the new era. What will the new intro look like? Will the sound system be better? What will be different about pregame? It should have a totally new feel, and that alone should have the Wildcat faithful fired up and ready to go.
Kentucky vs Alabama
TOSS-UP
I know, I know. Some of you read this and probably had some choice words for me, but hear me out. This is not Nick Saban’s Alabama coming into Kroger Field. The last time Alabama opened the preseason outside the Top 10 was in 2008, Nick Saban’s second year as head coach.
The Crimson Tide aren’t even sure who their starting quarterback will be. Sophomore Keelon Russell may have more upside, but he has thrown just 15 passes in his career. If he wins the job, playing at Kroger Field would be his first career road start.
One thing the SEC has started to recognize is that Kroger Field is no slouch. It’s loud, hostile and, as we saw with Ole Miss last season, a first-time starting quarterback on the road in Lexington is NOT necessarily ideal.
Austin Mack, while a senior, doesn’t have much more experience than Russell. He has thrown just 35 passes in his career, and the biggest game in which he has seen significant action came in the second round of the playoffs last season during Alabama’s blowout loss to IU.
Bama also has question marks at running back and along the offensive line. That’s not ideal when you’re going on the road against a Kentucky team with an experienced and deep front seven. If Kentucky can limit mistakes and make either quarterback uncomfortable early, this is a very winnable game.
Kentucky at Texas A&M
PROBABLE LOSS
Even if Kentucky gets a big win the previous week against the Crimson Tide, going into College Station, playing in front of more than 100,000 fans and beating a very talented A&M team is probably asking a lot right now. Texas A&M has a ton of talent at the skill positions, along with Marcel Reed returning at quarterback. While the Aggies showed some holes last season, even though they still made the playoffs, I just don’t see Kentucky having enough in the tank after what would be an emotional game against Alabama the week before.
If this game were in Lexington, I think Kentucky would have a puncher’s chance. But I expect A&M to be a better team than Alabama this season anyway, so even a competitive game would be a sign that UK is closer than people think. This will be just the third all-time matchup between the Cats and Aggies. The series is tied 1-1, with A&M defeating Kentucky in overtime the last time these two teams met in College Station.
Kentucky vs South Alabama
WIN
I don’t think I have to say a ton here. UK handles business.
Kentucky at South Carolina
WIN
A lot of people, for some unknown reason to me, think this game is a loss. Probably because it’s on the road, but call me crazy, nothing about USCjr screams “good football team” going into 2026.
They didn’t dramatically improve their roster through the transfer portal. It felt more like a roster reconstruction. Then this week, they lost two receivers for the season. Jayden Sellers had 22 catches for 337 yards in only seven games last season with two starts, and South Carolina expected him to have a major role in the slot. Jayden Gibson was an Oklahoma transfer they specifically brought in as part of that offensive rebuild.
LaNorris Sellers, who many hyped as a potential preseason Heisman candidate, was nowhere close to living up to that hype. In 2025, he went 178-of-293 (60.8%) for 2,437 yards, 13 TDs and 8 INTs. His QBR was 61.0, 65th nationally, and his 13 passing touchdowns were tied for around 80th nationally.
The bigger regression came on the ground. In 2024, Sellers ran for 674 yards and 7 TDs. In 2025, that collapsed to 270 yards and 5 TDs, just 1.8 yards per carry by the official stat accounting.
USCjr is going to need a significant increase in production to improve on a 4-8 season from a year ago. Maybe that happens. But for me, today, I think Kentucky goes in and gets a win.
Kentucky vs LSU
PROBABLE LOSS
Lane Kiffin takes over the reins of the LSU Tigers, and boy, did they have a hell of a transfer portal. LSU landed the No. 1 portal class, led by the No. 1 quarterback transfer and former UK target Sam Leavitt, as well as the No. 1 edge rusher, Princewill Umanmielen, who followed Kiffin from Ole Miss.
LSU has a roster that, if it comes together with Kiffin’s offensive prowess, can really make noise this season, not only in the SEC but nationally. I personally think they have a good shot at being a playoff team and may be the best team UK faces all season.
Historically speaking, Kentucky has played LSU really well in Lexington. LSU has not won in Lexington since the Bluegrass Miracle in 2002 and lost its last meeting here to the Will Levis-led Cats, 42-21. Does that mean this game will be close? Time will ultimately tell. Leavitt is coming off an injury, and there have been some questions about his durability. Health and how quickly the team can gel are really the main question marks going into the season, even if they aren’t large ones, but I think Kentucky will face its toughest test of the year against the Tigers.
A good showing, even in a loss here, could show that Will Stein has Kentucky on the right track.
Kentucky at Oklahoma
PROBABLE LOSS
Kentucky plays Oklahoma for the first time since 1982 and makes its first trip to Norman since 1980. Oklahoma holds a 2-1 series advantage over Kentucky, with this being their first-ever SEC matchup. I am personally excited for this game, as it gives Kentucky another new opponent that it hasn’t faced in decades. While I am excited for this game, I don’t think this is one that Kentucky ultimately walks away with a win in.
I want to caveat this: I do think there is a chance Kentucky can win this game. OU has produced some stinkers at home over the last few years, and Brent Venables’ side has shown a lot of inconsistencies during his tenure. That being said, this OU side looks poised to potentially make another run at the playoffs. The Sooners should have a good-to-elite defense with enough playmakers and depth to make any game difficult.
A lot can happen at this point in the season, but for argument’s sake, let’s just call this one as it probably is: a probable loss.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt
WIN
Look, Diego Pavia isn’t walking through the door this season. While Vanderbilt has indeed revamped its reputation from being a bottom feeder in the SEC to a competitive team, this is a rebuilding year for Clark Lea’s side. But don’t let that fool you, there is talent there. 5-star QB Jared Curtis has a ton of potential, and if Kentucky doesn’t show up, this game could go from a win to a toss-up really quick.
While these games are never easy, Kentucky has the talent gap this season, and with the game in Lexington, I like the Cats in this matchup.
Kentucky at Tennessee
TOSS-UP
The old-time UK football fans will roll their eyes here. The old nemesis always seems to get the better of the Cats, even when Kentucky has the “better team.” But this version of the Vols has a lot of question marks at the quarterback position. Redshirt freshman George MacIntyre and true freshman Faizon Brandon are battling it out to see who will be the starter, while the secondary also remains a concern for the Vols. Some fans have even shown discontent with Josh Heupel over game management and recruiting. Tennessee finished with the 26th-ranked transfer portal class and relied more on volume and overall depth than star-powered talent.
The Vols could be a really good team, or they could be very average. Time will tell, but when you don’t know who your starting quarterback is going into the season, with other glaring concerns, I tend to think this game, as unlikely as history says it is, could be a lot more winnable than people expect.
Kentucky vs Florida
WIN
1990. That is the last time Florida beat Kentucky in Lexington in November. Their last win north of Tennessee was against Mizzou in 2019. Needless to say, the Gators don’t historically play well in cold weather.
Last year, Kentucky embarrassed Florida 38-7 in, you guessed it, November. Even without the cold weather coming into play, Kentucky has won three straight against the Gators in Lexington and is 5-3 in their last eight meetings against Florida.
A lot of people think Florida may be good this season. A lot of that comes from former UK player and coach Jon Sumrall taking over the reins in Gainesville. With respect to Jon, been there, done that, got the T-shirt last season when people said Florida was a dark horse playoff contender. I will believe it when I see it.
In the meantime, history is on Kentucky’s side in this matchup, and I am riding with the Cats to win their fourth straight and fifth out of their last six meetings against the Gators.
Kentucky at Missouri
TOSS-UP
This is one of the trickier ones to think about. While Mizzou is preseason Top 25 and returns arguably one of the best running backs in the nation, they have some big question marks at other positions, namely quarterback. Austin Simmons transfers in from Ole Miss. You may remember Simmons, who UK intercepted twice and knocked out of the game in Lexington last season. But they also have questions around their pass rush, O-line and secondary. Talented? Yes. Sure-fire Top 25 team? That is yet to be seen.
Of all the preseason Top 25 teams that UK has on the schedule, Mizzou seems like it could be the one that ends up in the worst position at the end of the season. The ONLY reason I put this as a toss-up is because of the unknowns and the fact that it’s on the road. The Cats are 3-4 all-time in Columbia, so it’s always been a tricky matchup.
Kentucky vs UofL
WIN
First, I will never, ever pick UK to lose to UofL preseason. I don’t care how each team looks. It goes against my very core.
With that being said, I genuinely think Kentucky has a fantastic shot at the Cards this season. The biggest reason is Will Stein. He just gets what it means to the BBN to win this game. After two ugly performances in back-to-back seasons, this is a game that can really swing momentum going into year two.
Another reason is, I think UK has the better QB. Health will play a big factor in where both teams are come November, but if that happens, I actually think UK’s front seven can give UofL fits. IF Kentucky has anything resembling a decent season, Kroger Field will be ELECTRIC for this one.
And finally, I just dislike everything about the Cards: the fans, the team, the coaches. I could go on a long rant about stats, this and that, as to why I think UK wins this game, but it’s pointless. This is pure, unabridged rivalry.
The Cats win and restore the Governor’s Cup to Lexington.
photo courtesy UK Athletics. https://ukathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/
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